Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving to you all! Our whole team, including our mostly removed founder / chief armchair consultant, wish you and your family and friends all the very best. I’ve learned from speaking with many of you that Thanksgiving is a personal favorite holiday, and you are looking forward to having your extended families and friends brought together. Holidays are always times of joy, but sometimes as we grow older and see more and more of them, the excitement can slowly dull due to routine. However, with the continuing state of the world as it has been these past few years, I’ve found that holidays have become much more important to me. Sometimes we need an extra push to bring the people we love most together, and holiday celebrations give us that added push. They also provide a much-needed solace for us from the worry and fear we experience day-to-day, giving us the opportunity to be rejuvenated and to continue forward in our everyday trials. Not to mention, I just really love good food.

In these monthly letters, I usually like to give an analysis on why investing makes sense both with a long-term mentality, but also for the short-term based on where we stand today. There is plenty to share in this respect, including the cheapness of much of the equities market, the offered yield on “safe” fixed investment products, and the overly negative corporate outlook by analysts regarding the current 4th quarter, which sets us up for likely upside surprises. Even politically speaking, the second half of a presidential cycle has historically been more positive than the first. The upcoming possible changes to Congress hint that we’ll either have changes the market will like, or will have a decrease in political power to act, which again the markets prefer. In my opinion, however, the greatest influence on the investment environment today remains the social story we are all a part of.

Our ongoing explanation of how you make money by investing has always heavily relied upon the human element. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” We have shared these famous words of Warren Buffet many times, and will likely do so many more times in the future due to their truth and pertinence. Overall, just as with every other aspect of society currently, we are seeing a polarization. The media is represented today by a big loud group of greedy people and an equally loud group of fearful people. How can anyone make heads or tails of the mess we collectively find ourselves in?
Well, I believe the correct place to be is right in the middle... but I am not saying the middle is a comfortable place to be. We are not just sitting lackadaisically on a fence, unwilling to make a decision. Instead, we are in a battleground surrounded by two fronts, and holding off the fearful who say you should go 100% into cash (or even worse- canned goods and shogun shells), as well as pushing back just as hard against those recommending taking out loans on your recently appreciated home to invest it in overpriced technology companies.

I believe true power today is found in calm minds. It is found in the principles of value that for 250 years led our country to the success it still experiences today, despite the fact that some are trying to manipulate those values in order to gain power over others. We might be struggling today, but it will be those same values of opportunity, ownership, worth, and justice that will allow our success as a nation and people to continue. There is a positive and successful future for our families, our homes, our country, and our capital markets. We simply need to calmly keep our wits about us and continue moving forward. Human behavior will always cycle between the fear-driven and the greed-driven, but the oil that keeps us continuing is our deep-rooted drive to succeed.

I feel a bit melodramatic when what I end up conveying to you all is mostly these thoughts of hope and encouragement, but I honestly feel that this is the true impetus for our shared success, even (and especially!) as it relates to our investment success. So, thank you for bearing with my melodramatic thoughts, but if you’d rather a conversation on “why not invest in silver?” or “shouldn’t we own more of the Magnificent 7?” or even “isn’t the U.S. dollar going to be worthless?,” you know where to find me. We are always ready and willing to address those kinds of concerns with you.

I truly am looking forward to Thanksgiving, and I hope you all are as well. Libby arranged a plan for everyone last week. I’ll be bringing a pumpkin pie and cooking the mashed potatoes and cheesy-beans at Mom and Dad’s house. I am sure my brother-in-law Paul and I will be stuck with dish-duty as well, but the dogs are usually a big help in scouring the worst of the leftover food stuck to pots and plates. We may even try going to a movie together after our feast, assuming we can muster the energy to push through that after-Thanksgiving-meal-tiredness that I am also, thankfully, looking forward to.

May you all make new happy memories together, and find solace and rejuvenation in your celebrations.

Justin Anderson