Even though I say it so many times, to both myself and others, the time goes by so quickly. Yet I am still sometimes caught off guard noticing just how quickly each turning of the world, and its own orbiting around the sun, has happened. My son Carter just had his eighth birthday, and this year’s holiday season is already pounding at our front door. Each day, another couple of homes in my neighborhood are transformed into Christmas wonderlands, and my wife Robyn has been pressuring me since the end of Halloween to solidify Thanksgiving plans with everyone else.

I just recently started playing chess again with an old friend. We’ve had a good five year break, but we’ve been playing together since high school. Chess is good for your brain but can be bad for your ego. If someone sees you playing chess, they may think you’re a smart person. Little do they know how very wide the spectrum is from novice to super grandmaster. There are 400 possible positions for all of those pieces after each player has moved one time. There are roughly 3.25 billion different game configurations that are possible by the time each player has moved 7 times. Those numbers only go up from there, but the very best players will know how unimportant those numbers really are, because in most cases, the majority of those positions would probably be composed of bad moves.

Isn’t it funny how little it really takes to turn our frowns upside-down?  Now, I have a very biased view on things. My profession requires me to pay attention to the financial markets, financial news, and popular news every day, and I can honestly tell you the amount of bad news has not decreased in the least these past couple of months. I know I’m preaching to the choir here. There’s a constant barrage of reports of violence, endless political bickering, an incessant muddying of truth, and a plethora of doomsayers selling the end. But… on top of all that hard-to-stomach news has been little sprinkled gumdrops of good (and/or not so bad) reports. If you merge that better news with the cooling temperatures, a return to opening schools matched with a formal lessening of COVID-19 restrictions, and stock markets heading in the right direction, the stage is set for a ready smile and upbeat step to the future.

“There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. And there is a time to go fishing.”
– Jesse Livermore

Dad and I have both talked about Jesse Livermore in the past. Although he may be considered the original “day trader,” which is counter to how we invest, he profited and failed as a stock trader from his study of the psychology, emotions, and behavior of people. He understood that the short-term movements of the market, especially the extreme movements, were due to the temperament of people. One of his greatest accomplishments was knowing when he just needed to leave things be for a time, and just go fishing.

I cleared out my work email before leaving the office last Friday. As many of you personally know, if I happen to see an email from you over the weekend I will respond, even if it is just to let you know, “I’ll get right on that first thing Monday morning.”  However, I try not to check the work email too much on the weekends. This is partially because I’m trying to give myself the semblance of a break, and also because Carter doesn’t let me use my home computer anymore. Trying to fight him for it dampens that “fantasy” of a weekend break. However, the biggest reason I don’t check it is because it is a chore to dig through the barrage of junk-mail that builds up. Thus, Monday morning begins with the ritual clearing out the work email (picking up right where I left off on Friday!). This Monday I had 138 new emails at the start of the day.

Here we are, about a month into Spring. Even though we’ve had a few days in the eighties, it’s been the cold days, including having snow pretty close to home, which have been the most remarkable lately. Still, Spring it is, and to remind us that there is still a standard model to these things, the green has abruptly shown up. One day it was all grey and brown bare limbs, and the next I found myself driving down streets through windy green tunnels. That overnight beauty was accompanied with the usual choking pollen, of course, but still, it’s beautiful nonetheless. Along with this, at church, the Easter season just arrived. So, as I found myself surrounded by themes of Spring, Easter, rebirth, and renewal, I was hoping for something fresh to talk to you all about. However, not much has changed when it comes to investing, finance, and the economy.