Investment Wisdom or Just Grumpy Old Men?

In one of our meetings, Justin asked a question of me.  He said, “Why is it that the only investment managers telling people to be careful are old timers like you?  Jeremy Grantham of GMO, whose seven year forecast is negative in all asset classes other than emerging markets.  Howard Marks, whose most recent memo “There They Go Again…Again” strongly suggests people be cautious in their investing today.  John Hussman, who has been screaming at the top of his lungs about the “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” markets.  Seth Klarman who, at least from what we hear, is sending money back to his investors due to an absence of good opportunities.  And finally Warren Buffett, the most recognized value manager in the world, whose Berkshire Hathaway is holding billions, not because he wants to sit on the cash, but because like Klarman, he is struggling to find options available at a reasonable price to purchase.

Read More