But eventually, and faster than it may feel, a new equilibrium is reached. Everyone catches their stride, and the house is back to functioning at an acceptable level. And then, hopefully following a full recovery, the old routine replaces the temporary one, and the whole ordeal is only occasionally remembered or discussed. I believe our household has just reached that stage. I also just got the last (I hope!) and largest medical bill, four months post-surgery. I am taking this as a good sign. Plus, the weather is getting warmer, which is much better for Robyn’s metal and repaired joints.
 
While that may be a simplified analogy to what our country and the world is experiencing due to the attack on Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, I do feel it is a fitting one. We don’t get a lot of clear information about where the overall negotiations are now or where they are heading, but the disruption has already lasted longer than anyone wants. We know that increased prices for oil are bad for consumers and producers and can negatively impact healthy economic functioning. But just like with our disrupted home scenario, the world has begun running in an adaptive way. Even if things are not running at peak performance, they are running at acceptable levels, and this should give us a bit of hope until full relief is secured, which is still the top expectation from major authorities and analysts. Negotiations will lead to a new business as usual and the world will move forward.
 
I will share some of the current figures reflecting the effects of the spike in oil prices on the U.S. and world, as well as what expectations are for those figures going forward, even with the assumption of continuing disruption. Negative pressure is working against continuing strong momentum, especially here in America, which has led to less than perfect performance, but positive performance, nonetheless.
 
Here are some simple reports of updates to expected economic figures. The price of Brent crude oil spiked briefly to $128 per barrel from the $72 level it started at before the attack on Iran, but it has now settled to $96. Projections are for a return to $65 a barrel by the 4th quarter after production stabilization and a reopening of the strait. FactSet’s profit growth expectations for corporations of the S&P 500, even after adjustments for Iran and oil prices, are still 18% for 2026. Current modified expectations for U.S. GDP growth for 2026 (including oil price expectations) is at 2.2%, while the average GDP growth rate since 2000 has been 2.1%. The I.M.F. has adjusted its 2026 global GDP growth expectation to 3.1% from their previous expectation of 3.3%.
 
Although gas price increases are uncomfortable for many people around the world, and increased energy costs will continue to affect production of goods and services, the overall issues are not as dire as the media has been presenting to us, assuming the chaos in Iran does not last too many more months into the future.
 
I think many of us who have savings invested in the markets look at the current situation and hope it doesn’t “break the market” or negatively affect our investments. But as you’ve heard hundreds of times, markets are forward looking. They react initially to shocks but usually clear up well before any perceived problem gets fully fixed. I’m not saying that the equity, bond, and commodity markets have already called an end to the issues in Iran, but again, the markets are forward looking, and at least today they seem to agree that Iran is not going to break things at a fundamental level. If there was a consensus perception by the major market commentators that oil prices will remain too high for too long, leading to actual economic hardship around the world, we would not have market levels that have returned to all-time highs so soon.
 
In summary, even with the current level of oil price increases, and even with continued expectations of increased oil prices, the punditry is not calling for an apocalypse. On that note, I hope you are all gearing up for some summertime fun. I’d like to recommend the song Why Worry, by Dire Straits, as a fitting backdrop to tone down the stresses of vacation planning. If you’re so inclined, crank it up and give it a listen.
 
As always, we look forward to your calls and visits anytime.
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson

Of course, on Saturday morning, we all woke up to the news of the attack on Iran. I read a few of the articles while everyone else slept, and although surprised, I wasn’t too surprised. The U.S. had been positioning military units in the area for a month, and plenty of headlines had already been broaching what an attack would look like and could entail. But it was still big news, and since then, over the course of one week, the media with its doom and gloom and scrolling capital letters with flashing red blocking has been hard at work offering all the best worst-case scenarios that can be imagined, including in terms of the stock markets.
 
Much of the market volatility we are experiencing stems from uncertainty about whether the situation will continue to escalate and worsen. Emotions elicited by uncertainty are the best fuel to keep the fear-mongering media firing on all cylinders. However, if we look past the shock-inducing headlines and focus on the heart of the uncertainty, we can identify a few specific issues that economists and money managers are looking for before they become genuinely concerned about a lasting impact on the stock market. Those issues are inflation and recession, and in this case they are very closely related. They are also linked by a common factor, oil prices.
 
But before we get into that, let me share a very brief review of past geopolitical shock events and their influence on the stock market here in the United States. These findings come from research that LPL has done and continues to update. LPL analyzed the effects of 25 major shocks since World War II, including the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Reagan Shooting, U.S. Terrorist Attacks, and the escalation of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict. The average 1-day decline from these events is (1.1%), the average total decline before the market reclaims lost ground is (4.7%), and the average time of recovery is 41.4 days. The average S&P 500 return for the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month time periods following these events is positive 3.1%, 6.3%, and 9.2% respectively. The U.S. stock market generally takes these geopolitical shocks in stride and moves on. But always, initially, there is a lot of fear and uncertainty.
 
The biggest worry today is that the increase in oil prices will cause enough long-lasting inflationary pressure that the economy goes into recession. During the first week after the attack on Iran, oil prices have increased close to 40%, with the possibility of further increases indicated throughout the weekend. This has led to an increase of about 30 cents at the gas pumps, and another possible 20 cents increase is anticipated, with oil prices climbing past $100 a barrel.
 
Common sense tells us that higher oil and gas prices are a big inflationary factor. They are a cost that both consumers and businesses must take on, and this directly hurts everyone’s bottom line. And now, when times are as tight as they are for so many citizens, it will make it much harder for many to make ends meet. However, as you have likely heard, the U.S. economy is currently “K-shaped,” with high wage earners continuing to increase discretionary income, while lower wage earners continue to lose spending capabilities. Although it may be unfair, the U.S. economy as a whole will not easily be stifled by these higher oil prices. The highest income households, who contribute more than 50% of total consumer spending, will absorb the higher energy and gas prices and continue their current spending habits. And even though businesses will have to endure higher energy cost inputs, the U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of petroleum. Since 2020, we have been a total net exporter (we sell more to other countries than we buy) of petroleum. Ultimately, although not a full certainty, it is highly likely that the higher oil prices will be a net positive towards the country’s GDP, keeping us from falling into recession.
 
I know emotions are running high and the headlines can be frightening. For now, as long as there is no further escalation beyond what is already expected, the markets will hopefully follow past patterns of response to geopolitical shocks, and the current spike in oil prices will not be too problematic for the still strong economy of the United States.
 
Please remember we welcome your calls and visits anytime.
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson

My son is out of school this week for their second “intersession.” The new school calendar has offered a lot of opportunities for Carter to demand attention from Dad, and what I’ve experienced is a lot of forceful opinions from the young life explorer that he is. Most of us tend to think adults are smart and wise, and kids are inexperienced and will eventually have their own day in the sun. However, as I try to understand what Carter’s telling me, and pay attention to where he gets his ideas, I’m learning much about the influencing power of opinion.
 
If you really spend time with youth as they surf the internet, and especially while they’re giving their time and focus to YouTube, you’ll easily see what I’m talking about. Carter’s opinions are the opinions of other “content creators.” We all know children are easily influenced, and we all know we have a responsibility to educate and guide them as they explore the internet. But my new opinion is that we adults are also just as easily susceptible to the influencing power of opinion. I’m not really making breakthroughs in psychology here, but what I am realizing is that the current technological architecture of the world today is better able to break down our own personal resolve and force us to change our own opinions while embracing those of others.
 
Our behavior, to a very large extent, is guided by our opinions. I personally have the opinion that kids are important and precious, and when the school speed limit sign is flashing, I should slow down to that limit, even when there isn’t a single child in view. What I observe from others is that they do not share that opinion. It is uncomfortable for me to go the school speed limit when people are pushing, honking, and flying past me, and their attempt at influencing my behavior and opinion on the subject is very powerful.
 
Every day, from every angle, we are being influenced to embrace the opinions of others; to choose a side and then behave accordingly. Because our streaming technology is so ever-present and driven by the influence of so many people all the time, it is a constant battle to retain our own thoughts and ideas, and to retain our own opinions and principles. This can obviously be seen from a political point of view, but I personally worry about what it means for financial and investment behavior. The influence to own stocks or not own stocks, to accept cryptocurrency, to adapt a certain savings strategy, to borrow, or to simply buy or sell… doing what you think is right for you has become much harder recently. So, I continue to urge you all to ask us questions about what you see and hear, and about the opinions of others that concern you.
 
I apologize if you think I should just be telling you all what I think the Dow will be at the end of the year, but as I participate in this messy human world, I believe these philosophical ideas are just as important to our rate of return as are the fundamental things. And my report on the fundamentals remains this… our economy is strong, gross domestic product is growing above 2.0%, inflation is trending down towards 2.0%, employment is resilient, businesses are spending money on growing their businesses, and profits are still increasing. The bull market will end at some point, but currently there are no known, fundamental reasons for that to happen.
 
I wish you all a beautiful 2026!
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson           

I think it is not always easy to find, let alone share, gratitude for ourselves. I recommend you all give the letter a read. You should be able to easily find it by searching for “Warren Buffet Thanksgiving Letter” on the internet.
 
I recently looked back at my November letter from last year. It was not an outright letter of Thanksgiving, but more so an attempt to address a lot of the uncertainty that was in the air just before the big election. I am very thankful that none of the prophesied apocalypses happened. It has not been a totally smooth ride, but over the past year the S&P 500 rose roughly 13%, while the Dow Jones Industrial rose close to 7%.
 
One major worry I discussed in last year’s letter involved our country’s debt, and we have lots to be thankful for on that front as well. The 2025 fiscal year ended on September 30th, and the Congressional Budget Office estimated the budget deficit to be $1.809 trillion, which is $8 billion less than 2024’s budget deficit. Although that may be just a drop compared to the total deficit, it is a move in the right direction, and at least for now, a change from the continued expansion of the annual deficit we have become used to.
 
This year our family’s plans for Thanksgiving are a little different. Even though the Anderson family is all close to Rock Hill, we have not been able to go on vacation together in a long time. Libby decided to force the issue and found us a home on Airbnb in Hilton Head. The place allows for dogs which has been hurdle in our previous planning. I am looking forward to braving the holiday traffic-choked thoroughfares and sharing good quality time together (conscripted time together with no avenue of escape!). Carter is bringing a box of board games that “Gpa” will be forced to play (again… there is no escape!). And even if our Thanksgiving meal is Chinese take-out, I am excitedly looking forward to the trip and am very thankful for the opportunity.
 
May your own communing, feasting, and celebrating be happy, good, and memorable, and don’t forget to give yourself the thanksgiving you deserve.
 
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson

​And while I am complaining about the stress technology creates for us all, I have noticed recently that my “algorithm” data stream has been sending me a lot of quotes by monks advising me to slow down in life. Perhaps technology is also doing its best to aid and comfort me. I particularly like this quote by Thich Nhat Hanh: “Walk slowly. Don’t rush. Each step brings you to the best moment of your life, the present moment.”
 
Outside of these messages, my current news feed is offering up a lot of continuing fear about the government shutdown, as well as opposing views of a continuation of the current bull market versus an impending bear market. I thought I would briefly address both of these topics before I then force a little boring housekeeping information on to you all.
 
First, let’s address the government shutdown. This is old rote for a lot of us now. Shutting down the government is a frequent tool that both sides of Congress have used to try to get something they’ve wanted. Each time it happens, the media presents us with every horrible possible outcome they can think up. But I am guessing none of you can recall any doom scenario that resulted from a shutdown of the Federal government, and that is because there has never been one. There have been 20 shutdowns of the government since 1976, and none have caused any economic or financial upheaval. None are linked to a recession or bear market. In fact, even if it were purely coincidental, in most cases markets have risen, both during shutdowns and in months after. On average, the S&P 500 has been 12.1% higher 12 months following a governmental shutdown.
 
Second, I’ll briefly talk about the bull vs. bear market scenario. It can be disconcerting to see one news story from an “expert” swearing a bear market is just around the corner, and then turning the channel only to see another expert vehemently proclaiming the current bull market has years left to run. On my latest radio show on WRHI, I discussed not being able to count on financial experts for ultimate answers, because we can always find experts with conflicting and polar-opposite ideas and recommendations. Long-term investors must find their own resolve to stay invested, through education, common sense, and honest self-reflection on our ability to withstand volatility.
 
I don’t know whether a bear market is just around the corner, or if the bull market has years to go yet, but we can compare this bull market to previous ones as guidance. Our current bull market just turned three years old, following the end of the previous preceding bear market in October of 2022. Since then, the S&P 500 has shown a gain of close to 90%. If we look at all bull markets since World War II, they have on average lasted five years in length, and have shown a gain in the S&P 500 of 156%. The past is never a guaranteed reflection of the future, but in comparing today’s bull market with the past bulls, we are well within the bounds of average.
 
Now for the housekeeping – Charles Schwab continuously pushes us to bypass paper forms in favor of electronic approval of common tasks. This seems to be the case for most organizations these days. Going forward, Schwab will be demanding that the linking of a bank account with a Charles Schwab account, for the purposes of electronic delivery of funds, be set up only through an on-line electronic format. In other words, we at Anderson Griggs will start the process in our office with provided bank information from you, after which you will log in to your account at Schwab and “approve” the bank link. I assure you that this is an easy process, and we can walk you through it over the phone. Or, you are always welcome to come into the office, and we could guide you through the process in person.
 
As always, you are free to stop in anytime for any other help you may require, or just to visit. As I’m writing this, Robyn has come into the house with bags full of candy. The holiday season preparation begins! I hope you enjoy the times, and each other.
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson

​My last Intelligent Investing radio show, which airs weekly on WRHI, was based on findings from the annual Schroders US Retirement Survey. The survey shared challenges and concerns about retirement from two groups of people: those who are already retired, and those who are still working and saving for retirement. In general, the findings listed lots of different worries from both groups. The biggest concerns of retired people boil down to a fear of outliving their savings due to inflation, higher than expected health care costs, uncertainty about drawing down their savings, and the possibility of market downturn. The biggest concern for workers who are saving for future retirement is not being able to save enough for when retirement actually comes.
 
Both sets of problems reflect what me, Dad, and Carter face with our procrastination worries. They are very big problems, as they deal with long periods of time, into the unknown future, that are affected by many uncertain individual influences. What makes these problems worse is the fear-based advertising we receive from the multi-trillion-dollar Financial Services, Financial Regulatory, and Financial Media industries. Most of what individuals hear from all three of these are messages of fear, doubt, guilt, and uncertainty. I personally think those tactics cause more people to not act than to act on creating a plan for retirement or a plan during retirement. Everyone envisions themselves in a minefield of possible mistakes, and they are immobilized instead of planning and moving forward.
 
The biggest point of my radio show was convincing people that the way through that fear-based immobilization is working with a financial professional. A big part of the financial professional and client relationship is having a plan in place that addresses those fundamental worries of inflation, growth of assets, market uncertainty, and draw-down plans. You all are obviously already working with a financial professional, but as I say in most letters, reach out when these concerns arise and we’ll revisit everything. Addressing your concerns is never a burden to us and is in fact the very foundation of our ongoing relationship.
 
I believe the biggest impetus that propels a plan in motion is when we finally realize in our minds that there is a path to a solution. In other words, what gets us to take that first step is creating the story for success, which includes our current uncertainties and doubt. We all get to that realization in different ways and at different speeds, but that story we form in our minds is the basis of our lives, at every level. The development of that story is empowered by knowledge. So, when all you see are the attempts to scare you about changes in inflation, gross domestic product, market volatility, changing regulations, fraud, unexpected expenses, and everything else under the sun, know there is knowledge that can counteract those influences and help you plan to overcome them.
 
In closure, I know we are drawing in on the holiday season quickly. I wish you all luck with the scramble, and hope you are able to cherish these constantly shortening days.
 
Justin Anderson