Today is Justin’s birthday, so as a gift I’m taking over the monthly letter duties this time around in hopes of giving him a bit of a break. Unfortunately for you all, that means less talk of markets and investments and more talk of compliance, regulations, and tax numbers. But, I’ll try to keep it relatively short and simple!

First, I’m sure most of you have seen or heard talk about the SECURE Act 2.0. The original SECURE Act was passed in 2019, and the 2.0 version was signed into law at the end of 2022. SECURE stands for Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement, and the main goals of the new regulations are to encourage people to save for retirement and to make retirement plans easier for employers to create and manage. SECURE 2.0 has many many provisions, and I wouldn’t be able to list them all out in a letter, or at least not in a letter anyone would want to read. But, I do want to mention some provisions that may apply to you or to someone in your family.

“This is the most difficult time to forecast that I have ever experienced in my career.”
 – Brian Wesbury, First Trust Chief Economist

Whenever I’m struggling to think of something to include in our letter, and I ask Kendall for ideas, he never fails to remind me “That’s how it was for me every time… I had writer’s block every single time.” Once my complaints get to a certain level, Libby will just lash out with a quick topic and expect me to move on. This time it was, “Don’t you usually do a forecast? Do that.”

I just recently started playing chess again with an old friend. We’ve had a good five year break, but we’ve been playing together since high school. Chess is good for your brain but can be bad for your ego. If someone sees you playing chess, they may think you’re a smart person. Little do they know how very wide the spectrum is from novice to super grandmaster. There are 400 possible positions for all of those pieces after each player has moved one time. There are roughly 3.25 billion different game configurations that are possible by the time each player has moved 7 times. Those numbers only go up from there, but the very best players will know how unimportant those numbers really are, because in most cases, the majority of those positions would probably be composed of bad moves.

Isn’t it funny how little it really takes to turn our frowns upside-down?  Now, I have a very biased view on things. My profession requires me to pay attention to the financial markets, financial news, and popular news every day, and I can honestly tell you the amount of bad news has not decreased in the least these past couple of months. I know I’m preaching to the choir here. There’s a constant barrage of reports of violence, endless political bickering, an incessant muddying of truth, and a plethora of doomsayers selling the end. But… on top of all that hard-to-stomach news has been little sprinkled gumdrops of good (and/or not so bad) reports. If you merge that better news with the cooling temperatures, a return to opening schools matched with a formal lessening of COVID-19 restrictions, and stock markets heading in the right direction, the stage is set for a ready smile and upbeat step to the future.

“There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. And there is a time to go fishing.”
– Jesse Livermore

Dad and I have both talked about Jesse Livermore in the past. Although he may be considered the original “day trader,” which is counter to how we invest, he profited and failed as a stock trader from his study of the psychology, emotions, and behavior of people. He understood that the short-term movements of the market, especially the extreme movements, were due to the temperament of people. One of his greatest accomplishments was knowing when he just needed to leave things be for a time, and just go fishing.

I cleared out my work email before leaving the office last Friday. As many of you personally know, if I happen to see an email from you over the weekend I will respond, even if it is just to let you know, “I’ll get right on that first thing Monday morning.”  However, I try not to check the work email too much on the weekends. This is partially because I’m trying to give myself the semblance of a break, and also because Carter doesn’t let me use my home computer anymore. Trying to fight him for it dampens that “fantasy” of a weekend break. However, the biggest reason I don’t check it is because it is a chore to dig through the barrage of junk-mail that builds up. Thus, Monday morning begins with the ritual clearing out the work email (picking up right where I left off on Friday!). This Monday I had 138 new emails at the start of the day.