The Power of Opinion

We are already headlong into the new year. Even though my general assessment of how things are going and where they are heading is “more of the same,” the level of excitement has not disappointed. If you can stomach the ongoing political theatre here at home, you’ll notice there seems to be no lack of new material, while news from around the world is doing its best to keep pace. Although I’m calling attention to the mess we are all in, I will also share my developing understanding (opinion) and acceptance, that this “mess” is the human experience. I don’t intend that to be a pessimistic statement. The human experience has always been this messy, but we make it work and we grow and we prosper. And one of the biggest reasons we can make it work is the part of the human experience that we call “humanity.” Despite our messy competition and fighting, our past, present, and future only exist because we collectively prod, urge, and carry each other over the finish line, and we do so with compassion and charity. Things will be good.

My son is out of school this week for their second “intersession.” The new school calendar has offered a lot of opportunities for Carter to demand attention from Dad, and what I’ve experienced is a lot of forceful opinions from the young life explorer that he is. Most of us tend to think adults are smart and wise, and kids are inexperienced and will eventually have their own day in the sun. However, as I try to understand what Carter’s telling me, and pay attention to where he gets his ideas, I’m learning much about the influencing power of opinion.
 
If you really spend time with youth as they surf the internet, and especially while they’re giving their time and focus to YouTube, you’ll easily see what I’m talking about. Carter’s opinions are the opinions of other “content creators.” We all know children are easily influenced, and we all know we have a responsibility to educate and guide them as they explore the internet. But my new opinion is that we adults are also just as easily susceptible to the influencing power of opinion. I’m not really making breakthroughs in psychology here, but what I am realizing is that the current technological architecture of the world today is better able to break down our own personal resolve and force us to change our own opinions while embracing those of others.
 
Our behavior, to a very large extent, is guided by our opinions. I personally have the opinion that kids are important and precious, and when the school speed limit sign is flashing, I should slow down to that limit, even when there isn’t a single child in view. What I observe from others is that they do not share that opinion. It is uncomfortable for me to go the school speed limit when people are pushing, honking, and flying past me, and their attempt at influencing my behavior and opinion on the subject is very powerful.
 
Every day, from every angle, we are being influenced to embrace the opinions of others; to choose a side and then behave accordingly. Because our streaming technology is so ever-present and driven by the influence of so many people all the time, it is a constant battle to retain our own thoughts and ideas, and to retain our own opinions and principles. This can obviously be seen from a political point of view, but I personally worry about what it means for financial and investment behavior. The influence to own stocks or not own stocks, to accept cryptocurrency, to adapt a certain savings strategy, to borrow, or to simply buy or sell… doing what you think is right for you has become much harder recently. So, I continue to urge you all to ask us questions about what you see and hear, and about the opinions of others that concern you.
 
I apologize if you think I should just be telling you all what I think the Dow will be at the end of the year, but as I participate in this messy human world, I believe these philosophical ideas are just as important to our rate of return as are the fundamental things. And my report on the fundamentals remains this… our economy is strong, gross domestic product is growing above 2.0%, inflation is trending down towards 2.0%, employment is resilient, businesses are spending money on growing their businesses, and profits are still increasing. The bull market will end at some point, but currently there are no known, fundamental reasons for that to happen.
 
I wish you all a beautiful 2026!
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson