Technology Holiday

​Life is very busy these days. Although I am personally busy in my own life, I’m speaking much more broadly when I say this. I’m sure many of you are thinking, “well, life has always been busy.” Maybe that’s true, but I’ll go out on a limb here and say life is “busier” these days than it has historically been. The easiest answer for why this seems to be the case is our technology. We have access to 24-7 news streams, the oppression and allure of social media, at-your-fingertip purchases for anything we dream up, and the ability to immediately address any question or need we might have.

​And while I am complaining about the stress technology creates for us all, I have noticed recently that my “algorithm” data stream has been sending me a lot of quotes by monks advising me to slow down in life. Perhaps technology is also doing its best to aid and comfort me. I particularly like this quote by Thich Nhat Hanh: “Walk slowly. Don’t rush. Each step brings you to the best moment of your life, the present moment.”
 
Outside of these messages, my current news feed is offering up a lot of continuing fear about the government shutdown, as well as opposing views of a continuation of the current bull market versus an impending bear market. I thought I would briefly address both of these topics before I then force a little boring housekeeping information on to you all.
 
First, let’s address the government shutdown. This is old rote for a lot of us now. Shutting down the government is a frequent tool that both sides of Congress have used to try to get something they’ve wanted. Each time it happens, the media presents us with every horrible possible outcome they can think up. But I am guessing none of you can recall any doom scenario that resulted from a shutdown of the Federal government, and that is because there has never been one. There have been 20 shutdowns of the government since 1976, and none have caused any economic or financial upheaval. None are linked to a recession or bear market. In fact, even if it were purely coincidental, in most cases markets have risen, both during shutdowns and in months after. On average, the S&P 500 has been 12.1% higher 12 months following a governmental shutdown.
 
Second, I’ll briefly talk about the bull vs. bear market scenario. It can be disconcerting to see one news story from an “expert” swearing a bear market is just around the corner, and then turning the channel only to see another expert vehemently proclaiming the current bull market has years left to run. On my latest radio show on WRHI, I discussed not being able to count on financial experts for ultimate answers, because we can always find experts with conflicting and polar-opposite ideas and recommendations. Long-term investors must find their own resolve to stay invested, through education, common sense, and honest self-reflection on our ability to withstand volatility.
 
I don’t know whether a bear market is just around the corner, or if the bull market has years to go yet, but we can compare this bull market to previous ones as guidance. Our current bull market just turned three years old, following the end of the previous preceding bear market in October of 2022. Since then, the S&P 500 has shown a gain of close to 90%. If we look at all bull markets since World War II, they have on average lasted five years in length, and have shown a gain in the S&P 500 of 156%. The past is never a guaranteed reflection of the future, but in comparing today’s bull market with the past bulls, we are well within the bounds of average.
 
Now for the housekeeping – Charles Schwab continuously pushes us to bypass paper forms in favor of electronic approval of common tasks. This seems to be the case for most organizations these days. Going forward, Schwab will be demanding that the linking of a bank account with a Charles Schwab account, for the purposes of electronic delivery of funds, be set up only through an on-line electronic format. In other words, we at Anderson Griggs will start the process in our office with provided bank information from you, after which you will log in to your account at Schwab and “approve” the bank link. I assure you that this is an easy process, and we can walk you through it over the phone. Or, you are always welcome to come into the office, and we could guide you through the process in person.
 
As always, you are free to stop in anytime for any other help you may require, or just to visit. As I’m writing this, Robyn has come into the house with bags full of candy. The holiday season preparation begins! I hope you enjoy the times, and each other.
 
Sincerely,
 
Justin Anderson