World Investor Week 2024

My son, Carter, turns 10 years old on October 29th. Although by my figuring that doesn’t need to be a cause for stress, my wife would not agree with me. So, I too try my best to frantically go about tracking down invitees’ addresses, stamping RSVPs, arranging for the cake pick-up time, and preparing the house for the assault his three cousins from Charleston will soon visit upon us. I am fulfilling my responsibilities with love and excitement, but there is also a nagging regret and guilt for allowing those 10 years to go by so quickly. I can at least do my best to make up in part for any lost time, by joining the typhoon of children as they bowl, play laser tag, and play video games.
 
Another birthday that has recently been all over the news is the two-year birthday of the current Bull Market. Since the bottom of the last bear market in October of 2022, the S&P 500 index is up in price by a little over 60%. I know people wonder how long the good times can continue. If we wanted to compare using statistics, the average bull market lasts about five-and-a-half years and has an average return of close to 180%. Despite those figures, current valuations are stretched for much of the index (companies are expensive by historical comparison), but earnings have been very strong, and large growth in earnings is still expected throughout 2025. Any big negative event could cause a market decline, such as a hard landing for the economy (recession), a return of inflation, or further escalation in the warring countries around the world, but the current U.S. economic fundamentals are still quite strong.

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